Important storm coming: It sets the stage for which weather model to trust this winter –

We meteorologists have many weather computer models to look at for deriving a forecast. One model is known to consistently be the most accurate. Let’s grade this model versus the second most used model on the tracking of Friday’s mini snowstorm.
The European Model is usually the most accurate model. On the storm system expected to drop a couple of inches of snow across southern Lower Friday, the European Model has been very consistent.
Look at the European Model’s snow forecast from Monday, December 5. The position of its heaviest snow swatch forecast four days ago looks like it’s going to line up with actual snow accumulations tomorrow. The amounts looked too heavy in this early forecast, which I talked about Monday. All along it looked like a 2 inch to 4 inch snow. Today it looks a touch lighter, probably being a 1 inch to 3 inch snow.
At the same time the Euro Model was forecasting snow for tomorrow, the U.S. Model had its idea of snow much farther north and much lighter.
In the latest run of the Euro, the swath of accumulating snow is in about the same location. The snow swath has been in that same location four days now. The amounts are several inches lower, and it now looks like a one to three inch snow.
The GFS Model below has finally come around to the idea of 2 inches to 4 inches of snow over southwest and south-central Lower Michigan.
We have even newer data coming in right now showing a very consistent scenario for tomorrow’s snow. It’s not a snowstorm. It will hit several of the most traveled interstates in southern Michigan right around the afternoon commute. I-94 from the Indiana state line eastward to around Ann Arbor will have snow developing between 3:00 p.m. and 5:00 p.m. tomorrow. I-96 from Grand Rapids to Brighton will also have snow developing during the evening commute.
It will be a three to six hour burst o snow into the evening hours. There should be some slick roads as it turns dark across southern Lower Friday. Stay tuned for more updates here.
The European Model certainly appears to be doing well on the accuracy of the Friday snow. If this is the case through the winter, the European Model will continue to be the go-to model.
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