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By Ron Smiley
/ CBS Pittsburgh
PITTSBURGH (KDKA) – Who watched the KDKA Winter Weather Special? If you did, you may have remembered me talking about how there are going to be relatively big swings in our temperatures this season due to how global winds and ridges have set up going into our cold season.
Today: Drizzle around for the morning with a better shower chance for the afternoon.
Any Alert Days Ahead?: None over the next week.
Aware: Temperatures are all over the place from model run to model run. I noticed some variation from run to run yesterday but still went with the aggressive solution. Now, I have pulled back temperatures with data generally showing more seasonally appropriate temperatures in place.
We continue to see that battle each day with some pretty wild swings in the forecast today due to me pulling back on high temperatures.
The biggest change is going to be on Thursday when I went with the aggressive 66 yesterday for a high. I have scaled that back to 50 today for Thursday’s high. How does that happen? Well, interesting enough the numbers behind the high haven’t changed that much. The EURO holds the 850Mb temp at just 1c, but the GFS (the more reliable long-range model) still shows an 850Mb temp at 6Mb. That’s down just 1° celsius from where it was yesterday. So, the big change is that I have shifted over and now believe the EURO is more correct than the GFS. Also, we now have a slew of short-range data that is also now able to give some data on Thursday and they generally agree that the day will be more seasonal.
Thursday isn’t the only day to see some changes. It appears the GFS was very aggressive with temps throughout the week. It is easy to do seeing how close warm air is going to be to our region, but at this time the cooler numbers are the more likely solutions. I have shaved just a couple of degrees off of today’s forecast high and have us hitting 51° for the high. There will be light rain and drizzle around this morning with rain showers expected for the afternoon and evening. Morning lows are near 40 and noon temperatures will be in the mid-40s. Rain totals today should be around a fifth of an inch.
The best chance for rain this week arrives on both Wednesday and Friday with widespread showers expected at times. Wednesday rain totals will be less than four-tenths of an inch. Rain totals on Friday will be near that too. Highs on Wednesday will be near 60 with Friday highs near 50.
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Arriving to KDKA in June 2015, Ron Smiley has been giving a local and hopefully bright outlook on the day in Pittsburgh and Western Pennsylvania.
First published on December 6, 2022 / 7:03 AM
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